According to IEA publication "WorldEnergyOutlook2010" provides forecast data, the global primary energy demand in 2035 than in 2008 to rise 36%; the same period, China's primary energy demand will rise 75%, totally dependent on traditional fuels to meet This demand is clearly unrealistic, must develop new ways of energy use.
In the energy demand growth, glue stick saving pressure behavior, our unit of GDP reduction of carbon emissions are high. There are many ways to energy conservation, power generation using clean energy is the most direct and most effective way.
Therefore, we believe that wind, light, nuclear energy, and as the representative of the new hydropower, pumped storage, biomass and other clean energy will remain high long-term boom.
Nuclear power: the government strongly pushed a bright future.
China has built and operational status of nuclear reactors in the number of Block 13, all pressurized light water reactors with a total installed capacity of 10.23GWe. Five of them in Guangdong province, six in Zhejiang Province,glue gun Jiangsu Province in Block 2. Under construction or approved for construction of a 64, with a total installed capacity of about 72.67GWe. Close to 85% or AP1000 model, or CPR1000 type, which in Jiangsu Province and Guangdong Province, has planned the construction of Block 2 CRP10000 type nuclear reactors. Construction plans have been proposed about 150 nuclear reactors with a total installed capacity of about 150GWe, most of which are or AP1000 model, or CPR1000 type.
Basic line of development of nuclear power is: in the third generation nuclear power technology (AP1000 design and construction technology) completely digested and absorbed to master before the construction of nuclear power plants through international tender at the same time, improved the existing second-generation nuclear power technology (ie, design and construction techniques CPR1000 ), based on continued design improvement and development, independent of the PWR nuclear power plant building of appropriate scale.
Before 2040, pressurized light water reactors will dominate. Fast neutron nuclear reactors after 2020 to accelerate the development, plans by 2050, the installed capacity of fast neutron nuclear reactors to achieve 200GWe.
"Twelve Five" plan will be "long-term nuclear power development plan" proposed "by 2020, installed capacity of nuclear power 40GWe" the target to 86GWe, taking into account the installed capacity has been built 10.23GWe, then the next ten years , the nuclear power capacity will be close to the annual compound growth rate of 24%, nuclear power equipment manufacturers ushered in economic peak.
For nuclear power, we recommend the company focus on: Dongfang Electric (600,875) (600,875), in nuclear science and technology (000,777) (000,777).
PV: industrial chain division is inevitable.
The long term, the prospects are very bright photovoltaic industry. Photovoltaic power generation in power generation is still very low in proportion, there is great room for improvement.
In the short term, the European Union reduced subsidies to make a number of integrators in time to complete the installation before changes in policy, which led to the installed capacity in 2010 than-expected growth, but also advance the market for the coming year.
As PV prices continue to fall, the photovoltaic power plant investment income rate, a lot of money into this area, some European countries there was even the case of solar thermal power plant investment, which brings to the Government to reduce subsidies is sufficient PV reasons, is the root cause of reduced subsidies; the other hand, the sluggish economic conditions forced the European countries have cut the budget, "tighten their belts to live." Two factors, the European governments generally reduced the amount of subsidies for photovoltaic power generation.
We judge the European market in 2011 is difficult to reproduce the high growth this year, at the same time, other regions may be bright spots, the United States "Do roof plan" and China's four ministries to implement the joint action indicates that the two largest potential market began installed accelerate the launch, "is neglected and Gains," boom industry as a whole remains positive.
We believe that the situation is difficult to ease the tight supply of polysilicon.
The solar cells and components, sales and price alert constitute "double play." Because of the "grab subsidies" craze has passed, demand growth next year is likely less than this year, coupled with the recent solar cells and a substantial expansion component vendors, the market exists for this session concerns about excess capacity, which in recent product prices has been reflected in the.
We consider the main opportunities for polysilicon enterprises are facing is whether the cost of decreased ability to make faster rate of decline in the price of polysilicon, words, cost control will be key to success of polysilicon. PV industry chain, polysilicon in the most upstream component part than for polysilicon cost reduction is more dependent on technology and scale, in addition, captive power plant of the enterprise has obvious advantages.
For the industry, we focus on the company Tianwei change (600,550) (600,550) and sunflower (300,111) (300,111).
Wind power: there is still excess profits of leading enterprises.
According to the authority of the wind industry advisory body - BTM Corporation predicts that by 2020 global wind power installed capacity will reach 1.231 billion kW (is the world's installed wind power capacity in 2002 to 38-fold), the annual installed capacity reached 150 million kW, wind power will account for 12% of total global electricity generation.
According to BTM market research report predicts that by 2013 China's total installed capacity of wind power could reach 54.92 million kW; industry forecasts in 2020 may reach 150 million -3 million kW. This means that for a long period of time, China's wind power equipment demand will continue to maintain strong growth momentum. Energy shortages and rising prices, environmental pressures continue to increase, wind power generation technology matures and reduced costs, the great support of national industrial policy, will be to promote the continued growth of wind power industry. Can be expected in the face of the huge market space, the Chinese wind power equipment manufacturing companies will usher in a rare development opportunity.
As the base increases, the growth rate of wind power installed capacity is difficult to double growth over the past few years, but still remained at a high level.
After 2010, China's large-scale wind turbine manufacturing industry, the situation may change in short supply, with the gradual maturity of new competitors, the overall industry profit margins will be expected to decline. However, due to the wind power manufacturing technology continues to evolve, costs will decline, while wind power equipment manufacturing industry, the scale effects are more obvious, industry concentration is high, so technology is mature, comprehensive strength, sales of large enterprises will continue to will maintain a certain level of profits and growth. The leading wind power industry enterprises, access to social return on average capital excess profits are coming times, we listed the company's overall wind power to be optimistic.
For the Dongfang Electric (600875), Shanghai Electric (601,727) (601,727), Hunan Electric shares (600,416) (600,416) of these domestic wind power industry leaders, the industry outlook is still quite good, as long as the downstream investors to keep wind farms their scale of investment growth in wind power, wind power industry is expected to maintain rapid growth.