Aluminum exports increased substantially during the first half, is the direct cause of increased tariffs.
The relatively large amplitude adjustment, before aluminum to export tariffs. Since last year, raised tariffs on exports of primary aluminum, primary aluminum exports under control during the first half of this year, but the surge in aluminum exports,glue stick exports of primary aluminum and aluminum rose nearly 60%. In this context, raising the export tariff policy introduced aluminum.
For the depressed price of aluminum is undoubtedly worse.
We believe that a negative impact on the domestic aluminum prices. The second half of the export will drastically reduce the aluminum, thus increasing the pressure on the domestic market supply of aluminum. On the other hand, with prices falling,glue gun falling costs of international shipping, import costs will be reduced bauxite, alumina price cuts are likely to continue. These two factors has been relatively slow for the current domestic aluminum price is undoubtedly worse. The impact of the international aluminum prices are different. This year, international and domestic aluminum prices were mixed, a serious departure from. Increase export tariffs, at least in the short term benefit LME aluminum prices rise, because it means reduced exports, can ease the pressure on the international market to reduce exchange inventory.
Aluminum prices continue to fall fear is difficult to avoid, on the industry to maintain "neutral" rating.
Currently Shanghai aluminum 18,000 yuan / t is widely considered to be "cost." However, due to different sources of raw materials of alumina, primary aluminum production costs vary widely. That at this price or even lower price, a wide range of cuts are not realistic. We believe that 18,000 yuan is not the end, if the economic slowdown, people focus on consumption will be greater than the concern of cost, thus exacerbating the pessimism of aluminum. On the industry to maintain "neutral" rating.